Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 29.422903 31.396571 33.519292 35.987106 38.796791 41.920228 45.689559
2025-10-26 26.741907 29.393685 32.406443 36.133437 40.695222 46.203916 53.538751
2025-11-02 24.850154 27.791041 31.243236 35.681985 41.377650 48.660110 59.089687
2025-11-09 23.266859 26.351210 30.060423 34.971906 41.512852 50.277641 63.648689
2025-11-16 22.026795 25.200816 29.093396 34.374732 41.634367 51.772755 68.170300
2025-11-23 21.065433 24.314444 28.368151 33.989268 41.943327 53.494441 73.290326
2025-11-30 20.605920 24.018726 28.359883 34.531617 43.567024 57.325923 82.715374
2025-12-07 19.904759 23.363634 27.824632 34.282920 43.980492 59.296700 89.306472
2025-12-14 19.074014 22.494728 26.948367 33.477468 43.457667 59.640344 92.807558
2025-12-21 18.417082 21.823765 26.301730 32.951311 43.305248 60.567988 97.741457
2025-12-28 18.259410 21.806009 26.541677 33.725937 45.269023 65.474644 113.141945
2026-01-04 17.979301 21.606285 26.511261 34.084388 46.577612 69.393373 127.995177
2026-01-11 17.674873 21.378594 26.454196 34.437910 47.989314 73.938607 147.757884
2026-01-18 17.316052 21.060937 26.251789 34.550288 48.997922 77.898034 168.924808
2026-01-25 16.837237 20.554322 25.746125 34.137771 49.004856 79.677506 184.047286
2026-02-01 16.322709 19.978985 25.113958 33.480007 48.492535 80.189469 194.823752
2026-02-08 15.868600 19.474187 24.565688 32.927192 48.126800 80.991058 207.941190
2026-02-15 15.493564 19.069719 24.150618 32.569907 48.101622 82.624561 227.236288
2026-02-22 15.362960 19.009383 24.247939 33.072496 49.804895 89.024238 284.086365
2026-03-01 15.056137 18.683908 23.927621 32.842091 50.009366 91.514429 322.425832
2026-03-08 14.638252 18.185812 23.325788 32.095217 49.086780 90.680149 333.417092
2026-03-15 14.302264 17.798992 22.883766 31.606772 48.668722 91.252372 360.068732
2026-03-22 14.269263 17.853328 23.124669 32.325724 50.875231 100.236783 521.228428